BFD Projections as Applied to Player Rankings Explained

We started using the AVT years ago, but posted it on BFD as the official projections numbers back in 2008 for the first time. The results were outstanding…(you can see how accurate our method of "projecting" was again in 2009) HERE

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Please allow me to introduce you to the “method” behind the BFD Rankings and Projections. This is NOT rocket science and is NOT an “all new and improved” version of anything. It IS what I have found to be the most effective method of applying “projections” to the player rankings.

It’s got an added name (Lou’s Creation, see below…), but is based off a theory known as:

AVT= Average Value Theory

My good friend and Fantasy Football Expert Rob Zarzycki wrote an outstanding book a few years ago titled “Drafting to Win” in it Rob wrote an entire chapter dedicated to Average Value Theory and the use of historical player production averaged over 3 seasons as the expected production for each final position held by a player. By ranking it means where the player finished on the list from 1 to whatever the last number is at seasons end.

Then take the Averages of Past Performance as they relate to the “finish” position of players and simply plug in your rankings next to the averages, you then have your “projections” But they really aren’t projections at all, they are Historical FACTS applied to the upcoming year’s expectations for each player and where you have them ranked.

Confused? Don’t be it means this:

Take the points scored for the #1 RB from the last X# of fantasy seasons and average the total by the # of seasons.

Here’s an example: X=3 Fantasy Seasons

Let’s say the #1 RB over the last 3 seasons scored 295, 305 and 300 fantasy points.

Add those numbers and it equals 900 then divide those numbers by X (3) and it averages out to: 300 Fantasy points per season from the #1 RB

There is your “projection” for the #1 RB (scoring rules etc not applied, this is an example only)

You simply go down the list of points scored for the last 3 Fantasy Seasons, total the points and divide it by 3. There is your projection for each player at the spot you have them RANKED! Why am I shouting Ranked? Because Rankings are important, projecting points is a COMPLETE waste of your time, you don’t need to do it.

History already has!

Applying history to the points: Rob is an awesome player; he and I have spent time discussing the number of Fantasy Seasons to use. I chose 3 seasons for this reason:

Applying the rules of Statistical Analysis mean you need a reasonable sized sample.

Rob uses 3 seasons for his AVT application, this to me allows for enough impact on the average points scored if you get an anomaly year.

Applying a second rule of Statistical Analysis would mean we have to THROW OUT the High and Low numbers in our work. We ain’t doin’ that…

Why? Because we WANT those anomaly (high/low) years included in the average, which becomes the basis for the High and Low we should expect out of the #1 etc. position for scoring.

I’ll explain: The highest number in the 3 Season example used was 305; this is the maximum we should expect from the #1 RB in Fantasy football this season.

The low was 295; this is the minimum we should expect from the #1 RB.

This would seem logical and simple to use, highest number and lowest number.

But this is Fantasy Football, and some adjustments need to be made because we select from different draft positions, creating a separate “expectation” depending on where we are picking our players from in the draft. Here’s what I mean, and where APP (Lou’s application of AVT) comes in…

Let’s assume for a minute you have pick #5 in your draft and you are taking a RB (could be any position, RB is an example), do you expect the RB selected to score the #1 points in a Fantasy season? (We hope, but don’t expect it right, because he’s the #5 player off the board; not the #1).

As the #5 draft pick you are expecting TOP 12 points scored for that RB. So rather than set the High number expected as the most productive point scorer at the #5 position over the last 3 years, set the High Number of Points Expected as the AVERAGE over the last 3 Years for the #5 scoring RB. Set your LOW Number of Points Expected as the last number of teams in the First Round of your draft.

Ex. 12 Team Draft and you are picking from the #5 spot.

Lets say the average over 5 years for the #5 RB is 180 points.

Applying the AVT you expect that RB to score 180 points for the season, but that’s too “static” for me, I want to know what is the LEAST I should expect, that way I can decide if I really want to take a RB or maybe move to another position.

So what is your LOW expectation of that player?  This is where my application of AVT breaks from Robs and becomes

 Average Player Performance (APP).

Set your LOW expected points at the #12 RB. The last “First Round Starter” in your league at that position. If you continue to apply this all the way down your draft, you can break ties between RBs, WRs and TEs easily. Take the guy that you expect to get the HIGHEST amount of Points as the LOWEST possible starter for your league.

So if you start 3 WRs, WR #36 ON YOUR RANKINGS rather than your projections becomes your last starter overall. Take players that fit into a higher starter’s position like a #2 RB or even a TE over the #42 WR if you’ve missed out on the #36 WR.

If you have pick #1, it’s easy. You expect the most points from that player in the upcoming FF season, if you get it wrong you’re disappointed. Anyone else 2-12 and you are just expecting Top 12 production. If you get it you have succeeded; no need to spend hours trying to apply projections to players. AVT has done that (awesome work by Rob) and APP takes it Up/Down for you.

Now you can draft players that fall into the range of your Top 12 (this has been my method for years)

I’ll say again, we are NOT trying to reinvent the wheel; we are trying to “tweak” Rob’s excellent AVT theory to allow for a bit more variance of who YOU LIKE.

Why the CAPS again? Because I want you to take the player YOU LIKE not who I like; my job is simple. I am going to state my opinion, give you my entire basis for the opinion and get you thinking. From there you either agree or disagree, and apply these numbers and players where you want them.

It’s the concept I want you to get, not just my Rankings, take them if you’d like. I’m proud to say they have helped many players over the last few years be VERY successful, as an example I liked Thomas Jones very much in 2008 it worked out great, but Steven Jackson didn’t. You may disagree, so apply who YOU LIKE to the Rankings, just overlay them to the easy to understand 3 Year Average Value Theory

 and use Average Player Performance to see the last possible starter.

Let me add something else, effectively what the High/Low is also referred to is:

 Baseline.

“Baseline”-Here is the baseline for APP, the LAST potential starter on your rankings.

If in your league you must start 2 RBs and 3 WRs then the last player needed in the leagues starting lineup is your baseline player.

Using my example above:

2 RBs means the top 24 RBs in your rankings have the most value, RB #25 and below have far less value than WR#25.  Why?

If your 12 Team League requires 3 WRs then you must get 36 drafted. Making a 3^RD WR more valuable than a backup RB on your roster.

This is similar to a theory Rob called “Stockpiling” in his book, my thought has no name, but it’s this.

Get the BEST starting lineup that you MUST have and select heaviest at the position that requires the MOST starters.

Another example: Lets make this simple:

I need to start 2 RBs and 3 WRs for a legal lineup (forget other positions).

So 5 players: of those 5 players 40% are RBs and 60% are WRs.

Who has more value? WRs do, they make up 60% of my weekly points needed.

So why would you “stretch” for a #2 RB, when a #3 WR would be more effective for your weekly lineup? You wouldn’t, or you shouldn’t.

Apply APP, and select the strongest possible starter for your FF team.

Then when deciding on bench players, consider it again, you have Bye weeks to account for, “stockpile” (thanks Rob) the players you NEED the most. WRs first then RBs.

One more time: AVT isn’t really projections at all. They are historical averages applied to the future(this season); my twist is that APP uses the high and low for each position in the draft order.

So 1-12 in a 12 team league or 1-14 in a 14 team league.

Applying the Rankings to AVT/APP:

Now to the Rankings, something I have ALWAYS taken great care and consideration for, and NOT based on random projections, but based upon:

Talent, System, Supporting Cast, Schedule, Handcuffs

Why I use the above:

Talent: This is Pro Football, the coaches are selfish. The most talented players play. Period. Forget anything you’ve ever heard, THE MOST TALENTED PLAYERS PLAY.

System: See Mike Martz, he places scrubby QBs into the Top 12, know the system and it leads you to better FF players. (This is what the Coaching Tree Article is for)

Supporting Cast: You must have good players around you, LT2 is one of the rare players to succeed on a crummy team early in his career. Guys like Brandon Jacobs must have a solid supporting cast to be successful.

Schedule: I know for a FACT (because a player told me) that NFL players literally sit in the locker room after the schedule is released and calculate how many games they think they can win. If they can do it, so can I. This leads to many of the “finds” we’ve had.

Handcuffs: I believe strongly that Shonn Greene is a more valuable player to have on your FF team than Ryan Grant. Both could always get hurt, but you can get  LaDainian Tomlinson and have a very good RB on your FF team, Grant has no such backup (all due respect to Brandon Jackson). So if it’s a tie, I’ll take the RB with the better handcuff; it makes running my FF teams easier.

Those are the Key Ingredients to my Rankings, there are more and they are going to be reflected for the specific positions when we have the Rankings System done.

Back to Applying Rankings over the AVT and using APP to Break Ties:

Simply “overlay” the Rankings for your league scoring system onto the AVT spreadsheet.

Your “projections” are already in place; you have simply put a name to the number. (There IS the possibility a lower ranked player can have a HIGHER projection) This is due to the Average being the "projection", so one exceptional year can cause a spot to have a higher 3 Year AVT.

Simple and effective: not nearly as time consuming and a WINNING method.

An item to address now; I don’t go very deep past the starters needed for my leagues with AVT. There is a simple reason; the points scored become minimal, so rely on your RANKINGS. That’s why you bring them to the draft!

Projecting the numbers for the #50 RB is not an effective use of your time or mine, understanding how that #50 RB could become a #25 RB IS an effective use of your time.

BFD will continue to increase the number of scoring formats we Rank players in, for now we have:

Standard Points Leagues Rankings: Yardage and TDs

High Performance League Rankings: Yardage, TDs and 1 Point Per. Reception

 Subscribe to BFDFANTASYfootball.com HERE for 2010

Lou